Did we do it right?

 

How do we decide whether or not our decision was good?  Sometimes it is quite obvious.  I invested in company X and lost a million dollars.  Lets call that a bad decision.  I invested in another company and made a million dollars.  I would call that good.  However you find out that a friend invested the same amount in a third company and made 2 million dollars.  Or I did not invest in anything and held on to my money.  A safe decision maybe.  Now what do we think about our original decision?  Making a healthy return is good but most of us would agree that "healthier" is better.  Using the previous example a 2 million dollar return would have been a better decision than one that lead to a 1 million dollar return.  I started thinking about this while watching news and analysis regarding the overall effectiveness of the United States covid response.

The debate went like this.  On participant laid out the negative affects of the United States covid response.  Things such as elementary test scores, childhood obesity and increased suicide rates were all presented as negative results of lockdowns.  The countering argument was that we cannot asses the strategy as a failure because we have no way of knowing what would have happened if we had not reacted the way we did (lockdowns, social distancing etc.).  Firing back, the original presenter offered Sweden and their reaction to the pandemic as an example of what would have happened.  Sweden did not lockdown and did not close schools.  According to the original presenter Sweden did not suffer negative secondary affects (test scores, obesity, suicide rates etc.).

A quick clarification, the negative results were never disputed by either party nor were the positive results experienced by Sweden.  So both parties seemed to agree on the results.  Bot parties agreed on the course of action each country took.  You would think that this would end the debate.  One country enacted a set of policies and had negative results.  A second country did not enact the policies and did not experience the negative results.  This was not the end.  The countering argument offered was that Sweden was not the same size and did not have the same population density.  Other differences were outlined as well.  In other words by comparing the 2 countries we were comparing apples and oranges.  At this point I lost interest in the debate and began to focus on how I evaluate decisions.

Why evaluate decisions.  Hopefully I can learn from a decision.  If it was a bad decision I would like to know were I went wrong and try not to repeat the mistake on subsequent decisions.  Likewise I would like to repeat the successful ones.  So analyzing the factors that went into a decision and determining how they lead to an outcome seems to be important.  My previous blog was about the decisions regarding our trip east.  One decision was the route.  I selected the route to minimize time and distance.  Also to minimize any disruption along the way..  The trip was efficient and quite pleasant.  We arrived at our stopping points at reasonable times and avoided any serious traffic and weather issues.  All things considered a good decision.  So that would be one way to assess decisions.  Did I meet my goals.  The goal was to arrive at our daughters house with as little stress as possible.  That way we could enjoy Christmas with family.  We did have an enjoyable visit.

Another way to assess is history.  Assume I had gotten a flu vaccine 10 years in a row.  Then I missed a year and got the flu.  Then for another 10 years I got vaccinated and did not get the flu.  I could comfortably say that getting the flu vaccine is a good decision.  However I only recently (the past 2 years) started getting the flu vaccine.  I cannot however remember the last time I had the flu.  So it is pretty hard to fully assess this decision.  The only way to more fully assess this would be to expose myself to the flu and see if the vaccine prevented it.  That would be a dumb decision (see previous blog about the "Smell Test").

This leads to a final thought.  It can be pretty obvious when a decision is going really well or really badly.  For everything in the middle it may be up to us and how we feel about it.  Do I feel good about being vaccinated (flu and covid), I do.  Do I feel good about retiring, yep for sure.  Can I prove any of these?  

No, but that is not what my decisions are for.  They are personal.  They are for me and my family and friends.