Intuition

 

In my last post I introduced Colin Powell's 40 - 70 rule for decision making.  This rule dictates that decisions should be made when you possess no less than 40, and no more than 70 percent of available information.  With less than 40 percent of the information your decision is no better than a "stab in the dark".  This lower limit is relative easy to comprehend.  Without a map or knowledge of an area how do you travel to a given address.  Even if you have an accurate address a map guides you to the correct street in the correct city.  The upper limit is justified by balancing the time used to acquire the information with the utility of the information.  If a decision takes too long to make, opportunities could be lost, competitors could enter the market first or enemies could discover your strategies.  What I failed to present is how to fill in the missing information.  How do we confidently decide when we only have 70 percent of the information?  Put another way what about the 30 percent we do not know about?

My failure to address this missing 30 percent was a conscious choice.  I felt the explanation given deserved its own post.  Googles AI contained the phrase:

The gap between 40% and 70% should be filled with "gut feel" or intuition. Experienced leaders often rely on their instinct to make decisions when perfect data is unavailable.

What this basically says that if you have 60 percent of the information you fill the 40 percent remaining with intuition.  Forty percent is quite a lot to assign to something as undefined as "intuition".  There are obvious examples where this would not apply.  Regulators would not approve a drug or vaccine based on intuition.  However a researcher may use intuition during the development phase of a drug.  So what then is intuition and how does it assist in decision making?

The dictionary definition is:

  The ability to understand something immediately, without the need for conscious reasoning.

The link to decision making is evident.  The better you understand something the better your decisions within that subject.  The researcher I mentioned above would have substantial "baked in" knowledge the drugs and precursors he or she is working with.  This knowledge could be used intuitively to develop a drug or vaccine.  Different foods and ingredients interact in predictable ways.  An experienced chef would be intimately aware of these interactions and could quickly develop a sauce that has desired characteristics of taste, viscosity and consistency.  These examples highlight one aspect of intuition; experience.

Many references list experience or expertise as a characteristic of intuition.  I would push back on this a bit.  I look at experience as a source of information.  I would consider it as part of the 40 - 70 percent of the available information.  Referring to the dictionary definition I would categorize intuition as a previously understood element that was most likely consciencely reasoned.   I think it is matter of degree.  I think it is also important to differentiate between experience and common knowledge.  I can use an example from my IT experience.  Most people instinctively understand that the more users on a network the more congestion.  The more congestion leads to slower response times.   I have sat in meetings were non IT people oppose the addition of any new users because "it will slow down the network".  This is what I would consider "common knowledge" not experience.  Many IT pros would have a pretty fair idea as to how many additional users would cause problems.  This knowledge comes from years of building, managing and expanding networks.  It would be enhanced by a few mistakes along the way as well.  I am sure many chefs have had a few soufflés  fall prior to perfecting this savory dish.

In my opinion this element of intuition is conscience thought that has been previously understood and verified.  It is quickly recalled and applied to an appropriate decision.  It is information that could have been gathered by anyone that had the slightest familiarity with the situation.  However the participant with experience already possesses the needed information.  This rapid recall allows for quick decisions.

If I return to my IT example;  faced with the task of combining 2 offices into one, I would need the following information:

Number of users on current network

Architecture of current network

Number of users that will be moved to network

Work function of users being moved

From these basic pieces of information I could intuitively design the new network to support the additional people.  I would be able to quickly decide if the additional users would be added to the existing architecture or if a new architecture is required.  I would also instinctively be  aware of any pitfalls in my assessment.  For example adding users may have little affect on access to local resources however these additional users may saturate the offices internet connection.  I may not be able to quantify the increased internet traffic but it is something I could monitor and have a plan in place to address it.

Another aspect of intuition is relationship to the phrase "Gut feeling" or "going with your gut".  This element of intuition affects decisions in 2 positive ways.  The first is something I already alluded to.  That would be an awareness of possible mistakes or pitfalls.  Using the IT example: if I was managing a network of 500 regular users.  Regular meaning, they use spreadsheets, email and basic internet access.  I am told that 50 users are going to be added to the office.  These 50 are from a multimedia video group.  My gut would immediately tell me to be very careful about how I add these users.  These users would tend to use very high network bandwidth due to the large files they work with,  By cautiously adding these users I could avoid potential pitfalls.

A second affect revolves around time, risk and control.  If a decision is needed quickly and the risk is moderate to low and the decision maker is in control of many aspects of the decision the gut is an adequate decision making ally.  A good example of this is the Sony Walkman.  Sony was a very large company and producing a product like the Walkman was relatively risk free.  The technology was well established and available.  The Walkman was immediately produced.  Why the rush?  The founder of Sony, Masuru Ibuka wanted to listen to opera music on long flights and existing cassette devices were too large and heavy.  When the founder of your company wants something he gets it.  this decision went against the advice of the marketing department.  The Walkman was designed to only play music not record it.  Marketing and customers were not keen on this limitation.  However, the founder controlled this timely and low risk decision.  Ironically it was risk that lead to Sony's demise in this market.

As we all know the portable music market became dominated by mp3 players.  Specifically the ipod and iphones.  Sony was well versed in the Mp3 technology.  However the Mp3 format made sharing music very easy.  Sony was concerned about illegal downloads of their music (Sony owned a record company).  Losing control of their copywrites was too great a risk and they hesitated to bring out an Mp3 player and this allowed Apple to corner the market.

Intuition is not a sixth sense, or some type of magical super power that a limited few possess.  It is knowledge that is tried and true that is acquired through experience (including mistakes).  This knowledge is applied rationally and at the appropriate time.